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Early Kidnap Percentages
#1
So I've done three early kidnaps with success rates of 85, 75, and 75 percent. And I'm 0 for 3, no guards, no wards. The chances of that are slightly below 1 percent.

I could be unlucky, for sure, but hearing lots of past complaints about UN agents, I thought I'd inquire about people's experiences with early kidnaps. I'm wondering if the percentages are different for this order compared to the kidnap chart. Thanks.
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#2
I'm batting 1.000 in 119. Or 0.000. One of the two.

I had really good luck with early kidnaps in 102. Unless something has changed since then, I think you should be doing ok. I generally go with the assassination chart and subtract 5% for the kidnap odds, and that seems to work ok for me. They (my estimated odds) may be slightly high, but it's a good measuring stick for me to use.

Also, and this is just me being picky, but I think the odds of you hitting a 15% chance, then a 25% chance, then a 25% chance are likely north of 1%. I'm not positive, though. That level of math is beyond me.
-The Deliverer
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#3
(01-27-2014, 11:02 PM)kevindusi Wrote: I'm batting 1.000 in 119. Or 0.000. One of the two.

I had really good luck with early kidnaps in 102. Unless something has changed since then, I think you should be doing ok. I generally go with the assassination chart and subtract 5% for the kidnap odds, and that seems to work ok for me. They (my estimated odds) may be slightly high, but it's a good measuring stick for me to use.

Also, and this is just me being picky, but I think the odds of you hitting a 15% chance, then a 25% chance, then a 25% chance are likely north of 1%. I'm not positive, though. That level of math is beyond me.

I find Agents frustrating because they take so LOOONG to develop and then seem to commonly die on easy missions.

For example I recently lost a level 13 agent asassinating a slept baron.
A teamate lost a maxed EL agent trying to sabotage a village defenses just to raise level.

In other parts of the game failure doesn't have the same sense of waste of 10 turns of 500 orders.

Instead of just dying could the team suffer a reduction in level from one of the team members getting killed or wounded and the rest of the team making it back alive?
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#4
Chance of failure for the 85% mission is 15/100. Multiply by 1/4 and 1/4 for the chances of failure of the next two missions, and the percentage of failing all three missions is 0.9375%.
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#5
I don't do complex math stuff (just taxes)... but I still don't think that's how you'd calculate it. Not the point, though. Point is you haven't had a lot of luck. I know Cargus expressed the same thing in his UN game, as have a couple of others. I must be the exception, but I tend to choose missions based on chance of failure rather than chance of success... living to fight another day seems like a better strategy than to die trying.

Can anyone else share their agent successes/failures and whether they thought they matched up with expectation?
-The Deliverer
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#6
I suspect there's a lot of overlooking the spectacular successes.

Plus, also, we tend not to send agent on missions with 15% success rates so there are no unlikely success stories to balance out the unlikely falures.

(I'm pretty sure headhoncho's odds calculations are correct though)
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#7
(01-28-2014, 10:23 AM)Jumbie Wrote: I suspect there's a lot of overlooking the spectacular successes.

Plus, also, we tend not to send agent on missions with 15% success rates so there are no unlikely success stories to balance out the unlikely falures.

(I'm pretty sure headhoncho's odds calculations are correct though)

Yes the probability of loosing all 3 was ~ 1 in 100. However, as you already know all the events are independent so your next chance of failure is still 15% or 25% depending on the mission.
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#8
This is why I don't do math.
-The Deliverer
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#9
(01-28-2014, 12:36 PM)kevindusi Wrote: This is why I don't do math.

I would like to see Brogan's success data from 112. His UN agents seemed Amazing!
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#10
I'm personally less interested in general agent info, and more interested in the early kidnap mechanic. This is mostly because I haven't noticed a pattern of outliers in the general agent info, whereas my limited experience with early kidnap is starting to show a trend.

Again, however, as I stated from the start, I could just be unlucky and this is initially a very small sample size that could just be statistical noise, hence my request for more data.

I'm not sure if the mechanic has changed at all, there was a relatively recent note in the Known Issues thread about when guards and wards reset which made me ask if early kidnap was correspondingly affected, but I was informed it was not.
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